Reversing Irrational Gains, Tin Prices Follow Sector Fluctuations [Institutional Commentary]

Futures Market Review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract pulled back by over 4% mid-week, closing around 276,000 yuan per mt; SHFE inventory remained stable at around 8,500 mt, while LME inventory stayed at about 3,700 mt. In terms of advanced data, spot tin imports were in a loss; 40% tin TC dropped to 12,700 yuan per mt; spot discounts for tin stood at 100 yuan per mt.

Industry Performance: According to data released by China Customs, as of the end of February 2025, China's total imports of tin concentrates physical content amounted to 18,587 mt, with a metal content of 7,138.3 mt, down 12.5% YoY. The top 3 import sources for the first two months were DRC and Nigeria, among other African countries, importing 2,945 mt, accounting for 41% of total imports, ranking first; Australia imported more than 1,800 mt, accounting for 25%, ranking second; Myanmar imported nearly 1,300 mt, accounting for 18%, ranking third.

Core Logic: The most notable pullback in tin prices during the week was on the afternoon of March 21, following the decline in the non-ferrous metals sector. Prior to this, tin prices had already adjusted for the actual impact of the Alphamin tin mine shutdown. As we calculated, the reduction in tin ore from the Bisie tin mine shutdown could be offset by the increased production from Myanmar. The pullback on the afternoon of March 21 was somewhat related to the rebound in the US dollar index. Looking ahead to the next week, if the US dollar index does not further rebound, the closing price on March 21 can be used as a reference for the entire week; if the US dollar index further rebounds, tin prices may pull back to 270,000 yuan per mt.

Nanhua View: High-level fluctuation, with a weekly range of 270,000-280,000 yuan per mt.

(Source: Nanhua Futures)